Charles Lomodong/AFP/File
A young girl walks through a heavily flooded part of the Tomping camp
for internal refugees after heavy rains started to fall in Juba on
March 13, 2014
Soaring carbon emissions will
amplify the risk of conflict, hunger, floods and mass migration this
century, the UN's expert panel said Monday in a landmark report on the
impact of climate change.
Left unchecked, greenhouse
gas emissions may cost trillions of dollars in damage to property and
ecosystems, and in bills for shoring up climate defences, it said,
adding the impact would increase with every additional degree that
temperatures rise.
"Increasing magnitudes of
warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible
impacts," a summary said, in a stark message to policymakers.
The report is the second
chapter of the fifth assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide neutral, science-based
guidance to governments.
The last overview, published
in 2007, unleashed a wave of political action that at one point
appeared set to forge a worldwide treaty on climate change in Copenhagen
in 2009.
/AFP
Map detailing economic damage predicted if climate change continues unchecked
But a global consensus failed
to emerge as the developing world and developed world squabbled, with
big polluters like China insisting it was up to rich countries to take
the lead, arguing they could not be expected to sacrifice growth.
And in the United States,
President Barack Obama's attempts at passing climate change legislation
have been stymied in Congress, where some Republicans remain unconvinced
of the scientific case for warming and argue that mitigation efforts
are an unnecessary block on economic growth.
The new document, unveiled
in Yokohama after a five-day meeting, gives the starkest warning yet by
the IPCC of extreme consequences from climate change, and delves into
greater detail than ever before into the impact at regional level.
It builds on previous IPCC
forecasts that global temperatures will rise 0.3-4.8 degrees Celsius
(0.5-8.6 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, on top of roughly 0.7 Celsius
since the Industrial Revolution.
Seas are forecast to rise by 26-82 centimetres (10-32 inches) by 2100.
- Security risk -
Yoshikazu Tsuno/AFP
Greenpeace activists protest against global warming outside the venue
for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Yokohama,
suburban Tokyo, on March 30, 2014
Warming of around two degrees
Celsius over pre-industrial times may cost 0.2-2.0 percent of global
annual income, said the new report. UN members have pledged to hammer
out a global pact by the end of 2015 to limit warming to 2 C above
pre-industrial levels.
The impact amplifies with every degree, and beyond 4 C could be disastrous, said the report.
Climate change could drive
turbulence and conflict, prompted by migration from newly uninhabitable
areas and jockeying for water and food, it said.
"There are many things that
make people vulnerable, and when you combine a climate shock with these
factors, you can have bad outcomes," said Chris Field, co-chair of the
conference.
"With high levels of warming
that result from continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, risks
will be challenging to manage, and even serious, sustained investments
in adaptation will face limits."
Martin Bureau/AFP/File
Large floating contraptions, used by scientists to predict the
acidity in the oceans sit offshore the scientific outpost of Ny-Alesund
on June 3, 2010
Rainfall patterns will be
disrupted, resulting in a significantly higher flood risk, especially
for Europe and Asia -- and magnified drought risks will add to water
stress in arid, heavily populated areas, the report said.
This, in turn, will have
consequences for agriculture. Yields of staples such as wheat, rice and
corn will be squeezed, just as demand will soar because of population
growth, it predicts.
The report says climate
change will also have a ricochet effect on health, through the spread of
mosquito- or water-borne diseases and heatwaves.
Vulnerable plant and animal species, especially in fragile coral reefs and Arctic habitats, could be wiped out.
US Secretary of State John Kerry said the document sounded an alarm that could not be ignored.
- Denial is 'malpractice' -
Orlando Sierra/AFP/File
The Los Laureles dam, which supplies with potable water one million
inhabitants of the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa, at a critically low
level due to the drought, on March 27, 2014
"Unless we act dramatically
and quickly, science tells us our climate and our way of life are
literally in jeopardy," he said. "Denial of the science is malpractice.
"There are those who say we
can't afford to act. But waiting is truly unaffordable. The costs of
inaction are catastrophic," he added.
The report said the danger
could be substantially reduced, especially for those alive at the end of
the century, if greenhouse gas emissions are cut swiftly.
Even so, countries will have
to shore up their defences -- for instance, by making water supplies,
coastal areas, homes and transport more climate-resilient.
Many of the measures for
adapting to climate change -- reducing water wastage, planting parks to
ease heat build-up in cities, and preventing people from settling in
risky areas -- are cheap and achievable, it said.
The report was hailed by campaign groups as a call to arms for political leaders around the world.
"It's not just polar bears,
coral reefs and the rain forest under threat. It is us," said Kaisa
Kosonen, senior political adviser for Greenpeace International.
"Climate change's impact can
now be detected everywhere. It's already hurting us. How bad it will
get depends on the choices we will make.
"Governments own this report. Now we expect them to take it home and act on it."
Tom Mitchell of the Overseas
Development Institute, a British think tank, said a lowering of
ambitions since the failure of Copenhagen might allow progress towards a
global plan of action to combat the problem.
"I'm more hopeful that we'll get some kind of agreement, but it's not going to be quite the one that the world needs," he said.
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